Canton, Ohio, once called itself the City of Diversified Industries. That name, locals admit, doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue. But it reflected an important part of the city’s identity as a manufacturing center, with companies such as appliance company Hoover based there.
Today, Canton is not doing so well. The number of manufacturing jobs has fallen by 45 percent since the late 1990s as factories have closed or moved to Mexico, China and elsewhere. People have joined the exodus; the city’s population is now 71,000, down from 110,000 in 1970. The poverty rate — 25 percent — is nearly double the state average.
Canton represents the kind of struggling manufacturing town that once toppled American products. Both major party presidential candidates have promised to revive these kinds of places by bringing manufacturing back to the United States.
Canton represents the kind of struggling manufacturing town that once toppled American products.
Canton Palace Theatre.
To make foreign products less competitive with American goods, former President Donald J. Trump has promised to impose a 10 percent to 20 percent tariff — effectively a sales tax — on all imports. Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed new government subsidies to build factories in the United States.
In some ways, the promotions promise to revive the conditions that made Canton a manufacturing center in the first place. In the early 20th century, the United States had higher tariffs on imports, which helped keep American goods cheaper than foreign products. At the same time, a local group of businessmen known as the Canton Board of Trade used what were effectively subsidies—money and free land—to lure manufacturers into the area.
Still, many economists are skeptical. They argue that the candidates’ proposals are not enough to reverse the trends — globalization, free trade agreements, automation and other technological changes — that caused manufacturing jobs to leave America in the first place.
Consider Mr. Trump’s tariff plan. The goal of the tariff is to drive up the price of cheap foreign products so that more expensive American goods can compete. But Mr. Trump’s plan would raise prices on all imports, including components used by manufacturers to make American goods. As manufacturers pay more for these parts, the potential benefits of a tariff could be washed away.
Tariffs across the board “cause all sorts of indirect costs and harm to producers,” said Alec Stapp, an economist and co-founder of the Institute for Progress, a think tank. He cited research that found that tariffs by Mr. Trump’s presidency had hurt more than helped American manufacturers.
Given this outcome, tariffs may simply raise prices—as foreign companies pass on the costs of higher taxes to consumers—without leading to more American manufacturing jobs. That would be especially difficult for a place like Canton, where people are relatively poorer and higher prices eat up a larger portion of lower incomes.
Mrs. Harris’ proposals for new investments and tax credits may be more successful in bringing back some jobs. Federal handouts have kick-started renewable energy projects nationwide. And President Biden’s grants have led to a boom in new factory construction, including a large microchip factory in Phoenix.
But subsidies are usually upfront and temporary, limiting their impact. Companies build new factories and expect to keep them open for years. They cannot do that if they know that a crucial source of funding will eventually expire. That helps explain why the number of manufacturing jobs nationwide, despite Mr. Biden’s subsidies remain 34 percent lower than they were in the late 1970s.
The question is whether the American economy has evolved past the days of manufacturing basic goods. As the country has become richer and more educated, its economic output has become more about innovation and new technologies rather than mass-produced household goods.
The American product of the future is artificial intelligence, not vacuum cleaners.
A vacant apartment building.
The Metallus steelworks.
In this economic reality, places like Canton have lost out as others, like Silicon Valley and Boston, have benefited from their tech industries. Policymakers have long promised to help retrain workers to enter new industries, but these programs have historically failed to deliver.
Modern manufacturing jobs also often require a post-secondary education. Yet in Canton, residents are 36 percent less likely to have an associate’s degree or higher than all Ohioans.
“For a lot of people, getting a factory job right out of high school was the norm, and it made for a very good life with the security of retirement,” said Kimberly Kenney, a local historian and executive director of the McKinley Presidential Library and Museum.
Canton therefore faces a fundamental mismatch between the workforce it has and the workforce needed by the nation’s new economy. (Canton officials declined to comment for this article.)
All of this makes it unlikely that Canton and other former manufacturing hubs can be revived simply by bringing back their old jobs. Local leaders have recognized that and have started an organization that seeks to revitalize Canton by boosting local higher education and expanding the city’s fracking and tourism economy.
It is possible that the heyday of the City of Diversified Industries will never return, despite politicians’ promises.